Becalmed on the reef of sharks

Well, here we are in August. 14-11 (.560), overall 77-57 (.575).

What’s still possible?

Mega-whale Bandoliers have the division locked, +15 going into the final month is a guarantee. However, they do still have plenty of time to crush my winp, because we play seven more times in September. They will almost assuredly knock me out of promotion territory, they’ll probably knock me out of the WC (meh), but they cannot crush me all the way back to relegation. Just ruin my season numbers.

The Mallards are playing hard for the WC spot, we’ve been clashing and disengaging for several months now, at the moment he has a narrow lead and a far friendlier remaining schedule strength (.514 to my .567). I’d say he’s going to take it, in the end. But we play six more head to head and I’m winning those so far (7-3). so I dunno, anything can happen? But probably won’t.

Looks like purgatory again, felons, and another season becalmed on this shoal.

Projections:
PPM — 92 wins
RSS — 88 wins

^ See the difference? Did I mention that our schedule for September suuuuuucccks? Pretty sure I did.

 

Stern chase

We’ve after a fat and fully loaded warship, captain, but she’s four times our size and has 22 cannons to our 2.

17-9 in May, a much better month. We’ve risen from ice-cold spring training (relegation land) to pulling away from the pack. 31-25, Division 2nd, Overall 8th.

The problem is that the ACW division leader, the Bandoliers, is easily this season’s one seed, that team is loaded (lifetime 741-122, Looks like a three to five hundred dollar team racing to get to diamond).

So I can depend on losing a bunch of games when they come around (3 more games in May, 3 in August, 7 times in September, of course). The game scheduler hates hates hates hates hates hates hates us.

We would need to win a majority of those games to have any chance at all, and looking at the rosters that just ain’t happening. We might be hopefuls for the Wild Card team, right up until he takes us out of that race in September.

:wompwomp: trombone. Looks like another season in gold, ya’ll.

 

2029 Gold

Well, after the drubbing we took in Diamond (wasn’t unexpected, but there was faint hope we could manage to ‘stick’ instead of ‘bounce’) it’s pretty obvious that we need to work the live mission SE’s out of the roster and upgrade all over the place.

That’s going to be a long and ongoing project.

12-15 for Mar/Apr, a little sub-par but not horrific. Still plenty of time to make a comeback. I suspect the problem is just too many southpaws on the staff at the moment, the next upgrade will almost certainly be a RHSP.

We’re moving older roster players into reserve roles, and dialing up the offense. Pirate’s pitching is so mediocre-bad that we won’t be able to revisit the offense again any time soon, so we’ve platooned up where necessary, moved Peckinpaugh into 2B/3B platoons, and settled on 7-day lineups (for now).

Fingers crossed, hope that all works as planned.

The worst month

Is over now, at least according to the RSS model. And we did lose a few more than we won…

9-17 is bad.

So now we’re sub-400, riding just below the relegation line. On the season, 32-51 (.386), two games behind the Springfield Isotopes, who is the current relegation borderline.

ERAs still dead last, though Coveleski pitched up into the 5’s now (with the rest of them). Pitching continues to blow, from stem to stern.

Division 4th, Overall 25th. -119 Rdiff (ouch), RS 10th, RA 15th.

Really, genuinely few signs of hope. We might be able to squeak out of the relegation zone, but we’d still be an awful, terribad Diamond team for the foreseeable future.

These guys are already so loaded with perfect cards that your pitiful high diamonds need not apply. And that’s what gold-level hopefuls have to look forward to.

Projections:
PPM—68 wins
RSS—71 wins

The 400 railroad

Small signs of improvement, but they’re difficult to spot when your ERAs are dead last.

Coveleski loves to walk the bases full (89 control) and then feed fat ones to the enemy sluggers. 1-6 6.5 ERA at the end of May. Then we have the rest of the convicts, with ERAs in the 5’s.

Runs Scored 11th, Runs Allowed 15th. With a defensive team. Right, try to blame it on the fielding, you scumbags.

The team has decided they hate our ballpark (.320 at home???!). OK, we’ll try to address that next season, but come on, guys.

It feels to me like this league’s numbers are fluctuating wildly, and I keep waiting for things to normalize.

They just aren’t.

 

Cudgeled in a dark Diamond alley (thud)

Oof. Boomerang, here we come.

We’ll have to give it another day or two, maybe we’re just in our (typical) spring training slump. But we ain’t hitting the ball, we ain’t catching the ball, and we ain’t throwing the ball—so it doesn’t look too good so far. There don’t seem to be many lawbreaking vehicles on the street in Diamond Town.

Quartermaster, it may be time to give the felons a little encouragement. Go and fetch the cat o’ nine.

Looking for signs of hope…the infield (including catchers) is hitting all right, but we left the outfield in gold, apparently. The starters are getting banged up, but the relievers simply shelled (bullpen ERA-dead last). Ooh! 4 and 6 for the last 10, a hot streak!

We’ve actually had chillier first months. This team traditionally gives away half their losses every Spring. So we’re hoping for a warmup, and it had better come soon.

Anyway.

10-18 for Apr-May, Division 5th, Overall 27th. Relegation Line -½, we’re certainly not alone in the Boomerang Squad.

 

Scurvy dogs

For September and October we were 18-13 (.580), a decent month, right?

Nope. LVG opened September 13-1, instantly erasing the lead. And the “Miracle Mets” moved into the division and league lead at the same time.

:shrug: I guess we’ll have to be the hundred-win wildcard team. I’m proud of my felons, anyway. Extra grog ration this evening, and maybe some shore leave after the series.

We face the Renegades in the WC game, 5-2 record against them during the regular.

Coveleski took the ERA crown, Koosman t-2nd for wins with 19 and lead with 230 Ks, Cano 1st with 117 RBI.

100-62 for the season, second-best season thus far. But we’re off to be mauled by those monster teams in Diamond, so we’ll likely see you back in Gold in 2029.

 

August

17-10 (.630), Division 1st (+6½) Overall (t-1st w. Portobello) Mag#24

So we had a good August, but missed the opportunity to run away with it. 9 games that matter remain in the schedule (6 with Vegas, 3 with Portobello). If Vegas wins all or even a majority of the remaining series, he could catch us. Duking it out with the co-one seed in the final month feels like a possible nail in the coffin.

But it IS a +6½ game lead with 29 to play. We’d have to collapse pretty damned hard to give Vegas a shot at us. Pennant Chase says 99.4% division win. I wonder how many ex-Cubs are on the Pirates crew of felons?

Roush is running neck-and-neck with an AC Suzuki for another batting title, the LP Cano is leading RBIs, no one is on the HR board. Coveleski has a shot at ERA crown, Koosman has a (narrow) shot at pitching wins, Mike Marshall has a (narrow) shot at Saves.

Deff .704, ZR 50.9, up to our usual defensive standards. RA 1st RS 4th Pyt -2 Rdiff +179

This won’t be the strongest playoff team we’ve ever fielded, for sure. But this Gold league as a whole is not as chocked full of bone-crushing teams as in previous seasons, either. Perhaps we’re ready for our (first) diamond league massive beatdown and instant slingshot back to gold?

Projections: PPM 99 wins RSS 98 wins

Ballpark Strategy

Preserving some old threads that help with the annual questions about ballpark strategy. Nothing new here that’s original, but some useful threads from XX that should be archived.

Ballpark Factors

Starting with Chazzycat’s post (5th or 6th post) in this thread, which is still one of the most succinct park factors reviews I’ve ever seen, the thread goes on to some interesting ideas later on.

Three team slow grow

This one expresses his ideas pretty coherently, too.

ASB+

The All Star Game was pretty much a snoozer, the idiot robo-manager let Aroldis Chapman pitch to Berra and (crank) Game over.

Edd won the beauty contest, and had a 21-game hitting streak end.

The bats (in general) went floppy-soft for July, and against a schedule that was not strong. Lowest tow rate of the season thus far (.500), lashes will be issued to those responsible.

The pitchers did fairly well, except our rookie ‘superstar’ Kerry Wood, who’s cursed by the gopher ball demon. Waiting for his elbow to explode, which would complete the Kerry Woods simulation.

Leading the division, but we’ve pushed the door wide open to give Vegas a solid shot at a hot stretch run. Division-1 Overall-T3, slipping down fast.

The felons have been informed that the plank is rolled out and ready. If they don’t wake up and tow some cars some of them will surely walk it.

PPM-95 wins
RSS-95 wins

I have that pit-of-the-stomach feeling that we’ve seen this impending collapse before. Hopefully, we aren’t Prior and Wood in 2004.

“Even today I can barely believe how badly we effed this one up. I swear, if Jesus taught the Cubs to turn water into wine, they’d end up losing the recipe and trying to bottle p*ss. Pretend you spent 40 years married to (bleeping) Judi Dench. Then, pretend that for about four days you were married to Julia Roberts and Demi Moore at the same time, and all they ever wore were Hooters outfits. That’s how I felt in 2003. Then, starting in ’04 it was like Demi and Julia both got hit by a bus and I’ve been dating Judi Dench again ever since. On one hand, I’m used to it…but that doesn’t make it any less disgusting.”